Did the re-election of Donald Trump change Europeans’ minds?
In November 2024, we published the report “Old Habits Die Hard” in which we looked at the state of the transatlantic partnership in the wake of the US elections.
Part I: Remaking the Transatlantic Partnership: EU and US Public Opinion
Part II: Remaking the Transatlantic Partnership: Public Opinion in the EU and seven Member States
Starting from the notion that a reframing of the transatlantic partnership has been long in the making, we assumed that US-EU relations were at a fresh crossroad. To evaluate the state of the relationship, we collected data in the EU and in the US in September 2024, partially comparing it with data from 2017, Trump’s first year in office.
In a nutshell, we did show that 80 years of prime partnership had created a solid base of mutual appreciation and similar sensitivities. Europeans and Americans still see in each other their most valuable ally, NATO is highly regarded, cooperation trumps competition. However, we did also show that eight years of American hyper-polarization at home and mixed messaging abroad had taken their toll. In September 2024, 63% of Europeans agreed that it is time for Europe to go its own way compared to 25% in 2017.
We concluded that the outcome of the 2024 presidential elections will likely put the transatlantic partnership between the European Union and the United States under further strain, since Donald Trump has in the past been open about his support for an America First agenda and his disdain for international cooperation.
Following the publication, questions arose concerning the time of the data collection and the role of Russia. We thus used the December wave to check back whether the outcome of the election had changed people’s minds, and whether Russia would be seen as an ally.
We present the results for two questions here in four graphs (September data first, December Data below):
1. Who is the European Union’s most valuable ally?
Possible answers in September 2024 included the US, the UK, China, Israel, India, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia. In December 2024, we added Russia into the mix.
2. In the past century, the United States and Europe have often cooperated closely. Do you think it is time for Europe to go its own way?
Possible answers: Yes or no.
Who’s the European Union’s most valuable ally?
In the last half century, Europe and the United States have often cooperated closely. Do you think that it is time for the EU to go its own way?
The re-election of Donald Trump did not shift attitudes in the European public sphere
European attitudes towards the transatlantic partnership did not change after the re-election of Donald Trump. For Europeans, Trump’s style of politics seems to be a new normal on the world stage.
A clear majority of Europeans still see in the US their most valuable ally. The UK comes in as a distant second. China und Russia take the fourth place with 7% of Europeans naming them as the EU’s most valuable ally. If anything, the US seems to pick up a few percentage points. Most observable changes are negligible. The exception to the rule is Italy. In December 2024, 59% of Italians declared the US to be the EU’s most valuable ally versus 47% in September 2024. It stands to reason that the well-reported privileged access of Prime Minister Meloni to Donald Trump and Elon Musk may have had some effect.
However valuable Europeans believe the transatlantic alliance to be, well over 60% of Europeans also agree that it is time for Europe to go its own way.
These results seem to show that Europeans have understood the consequences of these developments for their own continent. In 2025 we will find out if leaders of national governments throughout EU member states feel the same and will position the European Union to meet this moment. So far, fragmentation rather than unity has been the name of the game when it comes to common foreign and security policy at the European level.
About eupinions
eupinions is an independent platform for European public opinion. We collect and analyse data on European public opinion and comment on what Europeans think about current political issues and megatrends.
Every quarter, we collect samples from each EU member state in 22 languages. Our data is representative with regard to age, gender, education and country/region.
eupinions is a Bertelsmann Stiftung project. The data is collected by Latana.
Visit www.eupinions.eu for further information!
Methodology note
The samples analyzed in this report were drawn by Latana in September (with a size of n=26,454) and December 2024 (n=16,592) across all 27 EU member states. Our samples take into account current population distributions with regard to age (18-69 years), gender and country/region. In order to obtain census representative results, the data were weighted using the most recent Eurostat statistics.
Given the sample size and design-effect (1.92 for September and 1.24 for December 2024) considerations, the margin of error is 0.8% for September and 0.9% for December 2024, all at a confidence level of 95%.